貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件

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1、貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件AgAu Global Producer FundJanuary 2009Strictly Private and Confidential貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件The information contained in this document is provided to you by Agau Capital Pty Limited (“AgAu”). This document and the matters discussed with you pursuant to this document are confidential

2、information of AgAu (“Confidential Information”). By receiving this Confidential Information, you are deemed to have agreed (i) that you will treat the information confidentially; (ii) not to disclose any Confidential Information to any person; and (iii) not to reproduce or distribute this document

3、in whole or in part, without AgAus prior written consent.This document does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer in respect of any securities or assets described in this document. The information in this document is merely a proposal and is provided solely for discussion purposes. T

4、he proposal discussed in this document and the information provided is subject to change without notice. The information may contain statements which are either missing information or which assume outcomes expected in the future. Accordingly, this document does not purport to be all-inclusive or to

5、contain all the information that may be required in relation to such discussions or for an evaluation of the proposal. This document shall not form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice, and does not take into consideration

6、the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor.Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information given in this document is accurate, it has not been independently verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or

7、implied, is made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions expressed in this document and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any and all liability in respect of such information and opinions is hereby expressly excluded, including, without limitation, any liab

8、ility arising from fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of this information or otherwise arising in connection with it. No responsibility is accepted by AgAu, or any of its related corporations, directors, representatives, officers, employees, agents, advisors, associates nor any o

9、ther person, for any of the information or for any action taken by you on the basis of the information or opinions expressed in this document.The following information contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on AgAus current expectations and beliefs, as well a

10、s a number of assumptions concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, many of which are outside AgAus control that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements

11、. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to AgAu on this date and AgAu expressly disclaims any obligation to update or

12、 revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.DisclaimerAgAu Capital Pty Ltd貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Table of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsOvervie

13、w of AgAu CapitalMarket OpportunityInvestment StrategiesTeamPerformance RecordFund TermsAppendicesAgAu Capital Pty Ltd貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Overview of AgAu Capital Pty LimitedCompelling Market Opportunity Gold/Silver is the only Currency not beholden to a Government. Gold/Silver is traditionally the m

14、ost effective hedge against loose monetary policy. Gold/Silver equities offer leveraged exposure to gold price rises Gold/Silver equities are massively undervalued relative to gold Low/No correlation to other assets, notably in extreme market conditions.Fundamental Approach Select companies with low

15、est cost per ounce of reserves Select companies most likely to convert resources into production. Select companies with highest cost of production which provide greatest leverage to increasing gold price Historic Gold Producing landholders Diversify production to minimize Sovereign risk Experienced

16、Team Senior team 20 years experience in Investment Banking, Trading and Commodity Price Risk Management. Pre-eminent market insight/analysis, trading and risk management skills. Producer Financial Risk Management, Central Bank Operations, Project Finance Analysis, Proprietary Trading, International

17、Investment Bank Commodity Exposure and Risk Management, Market leading Macro-Economic analysisStrong Performance Significant outperformance of traditional Equity returns. Reduced volatility versus comparable indexes. Negative Interest Rates for equivalent rated assets.A Uniquely Experienced Team and

18、 a Compelling Market Opportunity Overview貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Industry OverviewGlobal Mine Supply in Significant Decline- Peak Global Gold production seen in 2001- South Africa, Australia, USA suffering increasingly large production declines- No significant discovery of Precious Metals deposits this d

19、ecade - Significant Reserve depletion via Mine Production- Silver to outperform Gold in coming years. No stockpile. Inelastic supply- Discontinuance of Central Bank Sales and Producer HedgingMassive Increase in Global Demand for Physical Precious Metals-Investment Demand (Traditional and Situational

20、)-Fiat Currency rejection-Safe Haven Currency / Risk Diversification-Capital Preservation versus Capital AppreciationII. Market Opportunity貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Gold Since the Nixon DefaultII. Market Opportunity貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Declining Supply & Rising DemandII. Market Opportunity貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件

21、Equity Market OverviewII. Market OpportunityGold equities form a tiny component of the overall equity market. A minor increase in capital allocation to the Precious Metal sector will have a dramatic effect on associated equity prices.The HUI Index of 15 largest Un-hedged Gold Producers has comparabl

22、e market capitalisation to McDonalds Corporation or Boeing Inc. Every Gold and Silver mine in the World can today be bought for less than the market capitalisation of large US retailer, Walmart.Precious Metals equities are massively undervalued relative to the physical metal.- Gold shares, when valu

23、ed versus the gold price are cheaper than when gold was $270 per ounce in 2002.Natural Leverage of Producers to the Metal Price. - The inherent call option of unhedged gold in the ground.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Equity Market OverviewII. Market OpportunityGold shares, when valued versus the gold price are

24、 cheaper than when gold was $270 per ounce in 2002.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Compelling Market OpportunityII. Market OpportunityLong Term TrendMarket Capitalisation2.82x175 bioG E2.75x171 bioMicrosoft2.67x166 bioAT & T1.39x86 bioGoogle3.48x216 bioWalmart0.64x40 bioCitigroup1.37x85 bioIntel0.08x5 bioAIG1.93

25、x120 bioIBM1.53x95 bioH P0.51x32 bioBoeing0.94x58 bioMcDonalds1x62 bioHUI Gold IndexHUI MultipleMarket Cap. USD5 Dec 2008Index / Stock貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Macro Economic OverviewII. Market Opportunity Gold A True Store of Wealth.- Dow Jones 30 Index devalued over 75% in gold terms since 2002.- Gold ha

26、s appreciated 2000% in US Dollar terms since 1971.- Investment in US Treasuries today guarantees a capital loss via Negative Real Interest Rates.Macro-Economic analysis incredibly bullish for Precious Metals.- Massively inflationary policies from Governments/Central Banks globally via bailouts due t

27、o the “Financial Crisis”. - Currently over 4 Trillion Dollars globally.- Competitive Devaluation of ALL currencies.- Inevitable flight from Fiat Currency to tangible assets.- Paper Metal versus Physical Metal. Refer the 1966 London Gold Pool. 貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Compelling Market OpportunityII. Marke

28、t OpportunityMonetary InflationInflation Adjusted GoldGlobal Mine Production Decline貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件2007 - ? Financial CrisisII. Market Opportunity貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Investment StrategiesIII. Investment StrategiesBuy gold reserves cheaplyConcentrate on the companies whose reserves are most attrac

29、tively valued.Invest in high cost producersHigh cost producers have the greatest operational leverage to an increase in the gold price. Optionality.Gold is harder to find. More will be found where it was before.Companies who control significant historic production sites mothballed for decades due to

30、 price and indifference.Diversify globally.Evaluate country risk and diversify accordingly.Synthesize Silver ProductionSilver is significantly undervalued relative to Gold. Limited market. Synthetically convert gold production to silver production.Strategies貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Buy Gold Reserves Cheap

31、lyIII. Investment StrategiesMetal in the ground provides shareholders with a very real call option on the metal itself. - No hedging is a fundamental requirementMarket Capitalisation divided by Proven and Probable Reserves. The lower the better. Price of Gold used to calculate Proven and Probable Re

32、serves understated in our view. - Many Producers using $500-600 per ounce to calculate reserve base. - Reserves Increase at higher prices in most cases. - Economic conversion potential of Resources to Reserves. Strip Ratios.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Invest In High Cost ProducersIII. Investment Strategies U

33、nlike many other equity investments, we prefer exposure to Producers with high costs and therefore very tight margins. Natural leverage to higher prices inevitable.-Consider the following example of a gold price of $800 per ounce.Miner A produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is $400 per ounce.Min

34、er B produces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is $100 per ounce.-The Gold Price subsequently rises to $1000 per ounce.Miner A still produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is now $600 per ounce. An increased profit margin of 50%.Miner B still produces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is now $300 per

35、 ounce. An increased profit margin of 200%.-The share price of miner B should mirror the obvious outperformance. 貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Historic GoldfieldsMore to Yield.III. Investment StrategiesMany historic multi-million ounce gold producing regions have been dormant for more than a Century. Many simp

36、ly shut after the mid 1800 gold rushes or the end of World War 1 due to costs, lack of a labour force and lack of capital. - Many historic mining regions have not been seriously re-worked or explored with modern methods and technology.- Many suffered due to disjointed and fractured ownership. Some r

37、egions are consolidated under one focused owner for the first time in their rich history. Examples such as:- Ballarat/ Bendigo in Victoria, Charters Towers in Queensland, Mt Lyell in Western Tasmania, the Carlin Trend in Nevada, Bathurst/Hargreaves in Western New South Wales.Gold doesnt appear in th

38、e crust in single “pipes” like diamonds. Where there is one gold mine there will be others. Red Lake Ontario, now controlled by Goldcorp Inc.Pure Silver mines are located in Mexico, Peru and Argentina. Historic areas again.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Synthesize Silver ProductionIII. Investment StrategiesTher

39、e are very few pure Silver producers available anywhere to invest in. The Silver supply-demand imbalance suggests significant outperformance of Gold as an investment.- Silver is generally a bi-product of lead zinc and copper mines.- Supply is inelastic until pure silver mines from Mexico, Peru and A

40、rgentina become viable at much higher prices.Use of simple derivative contracts (with superior rated global banking institutions) allows AgAu Capital to convert Gold production to Silver production.- Buy silver / Sell Gold contracts effectively converts 1 ounce of Gold production to 80 ounces of sil

41、ver production. - We expect the silver / gold ratio to fall from 80 to 1 at present to around 16-1 in the next 5 years.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Gold/Silver RatioIII. Investment Strategies We expect significant outperformance by silver in coming years. Historic Bi-metallic monetary standard set at 16 to 1.

42、 Geologically the ratio is 14 to 1 but currently trading at 80-1 Industrial and Monetary applications ensure demand貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Diversify GloballyIII. Investment StrategiesAustralian Investors have very few options when looking at attractive Precious Metal investments in the local market.- We

43、see significantly better value outside Australia at present.International Investors must be cognizant of Sovereign Risk when looking at Precious Metals as an asset class. Diversification is essential for risk management.- Nationalisation of Mines Crystallex Inc in Venezuela - Exchange Controls Zimpl

44、ats in Zimbabwe.AgAu Capital monitors sovereign risk and adjusts portfolio balance accordingly.- Preference for companies incorporated in Commonwealth countries with operations in mature economies.- Manage exposure to African and South American production depending on country risk.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課

45、件Global ProductionIII. Investment StrategiesGlobal Gold Production has changed dramatically over the past 3 decades. A Precious Metals portfolio cannot ignore developing economies and countries of lesser sovereign risk貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Experienced Licensed TeamIV. Team RelevantExperience(years)Prev

46、ious FirmsExperience HighlightsInvestment ProfessionalsLaurie McGuirk22CitigroupTransmedia GroupHead of Energy Derivatives Asia Pacific. Three times voted No 1 Corporate Risk Manager for Strategic Advice by Australias top 500 companies.Analysis, structuring and implementation of significant Precious

47、 Metals hedge books for major Gold Mining Companies and Central Banks.Construct and manage the groups Investment portfolio particularly PMs and Equity portfolio.Mark Long20Merrill LynchCitigroupManaging Director and Head of Commodities for Asia Pacific. Responsible for trading, structuring, sales an

48、d risk management of all commodities in Asia.Head of Commodities Asia PacificKyle Shortland14Suncorp Metway / Westpac / Next FinancialVarious roles including Senior Portfolio Manager, Prop trader, and Model Development as well as writing financial market commentaries for a number of global sources.貴

49、金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Illustrative Investment TermsVI. Fund Terms Citco Fund Services (Australia) LimitedFund AdministratorDLA Philips FoxFund Lawyers AustraliaWalkersFund Lawyers CaymansInvestment Strategy Earn an attractive risk-adjusted return by creating a globally diversified portfolio of gold mini

50、ng stocks. Absolute Return Strategy employing both Fundamental and Technical analysis with a Long Delta position at all times. Specific sector concentration with commensurate risk diversification. Appropriate strategic futures and derivatives trading to enhance return and ameliorate risk.Target Size

51、US$ 1 billion (Soft close at $600 million with excess capacity allocated to initial investors).Base CurrencyUS$ Fund StructureMaster-Feeder Cayman Islands DomiciledInvestment Period3-10 yearsManagement Fee2% of committed capital paid monthly.Performance Fee20% of profits paid quarterly with a high w

52、ater mark.Preferred Return15%ExpensesThe Manager will be reimbursed for all financing costs and all direct and indirect operating costs and expenses and all out-of-pocket costs and expenses incurred in connection with the operation of the assets and the provision of administrative services Diversifi

53、cation RequirementsCompany Exposure: Not more than 10% FUM exposed to any one company, Not more than 5% of a single company. Not more than five days average daily volume.Geographic: Appropriate Diversification of Sovereign risk.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件AppendixAgAu Global Producer Fund Mitigating Risks Ag

54、Aus Portfolio Representative TransactionsI. Australian Financial Services License貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Mitigating RisksAppendix RiskProtection/MitigantMetal Price Overwhelming physical market demand underpins price. Significantly Reduced Official Sales and Producer Hedging Futures Market for our portfo

55、lio hedging and positioning. Derivatives both OTC and ETO. No Gold or Silver Lease exposure permitted. Employ both Fundamental and Technical analysis for strategic positioning/Hedging/re-weighting.Operation/Project Core portfolio production cost at industry standard. Low Cost eg Goldcorp. Analysis i

56、ncludes Geology, Underground vrs Open Pit, Production History, Infrastructure, Costs, Experience of Contract miners. Production diversity. Single mine companies rate lower than multiple production sites.Liquidity Exchange Listed Equities No more than 10% FUM exposed to any entity. No greater than 5%

57、 ownership of common shares of an entity. Exposure no greater than WAV (weekly average volume) for last 12 months. OTC derivatives must be a function of either Gold or Silver price. No Exceptions.Management Reputation. Know their pedigree. Experience. Accountants dont make good explorers. Geologists

58、 dont make good CEOS. Horses for courses. Skin in the game. Board Experience, involvement and oversight.Sovereign Diversification. Multiple production sites offset some of the risk. eg Newmont. Continual monitoring via respected independent sources. Common Sense.貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件 Lowest cost Prove

59、n and Probable Reserves in the world. Significant exploration potential Gold production since 1873. Ghana based production possibly the best sovereign risk in Africa. High cost producer. (+$700). Difficult ore-body now understood and to be profitably exploited. Production Cost declines expected Exch

60、ange Traded Options Infrastructure completed Negative market sentiment Reserves Calculated at $560 Massive undervalue on Peer Comparison basis.Portfolio Composition/Stock SelectionAppendix ProfileListing:NYSE, TSEProduction p.a.2.5 mio Reserves (P+P off US$550)50 Mio +Mine Life15 YEARS+No of Operati

61、ons16Share Price US$29.60Market Cap23 Billion US$Shares issued731 mioWAV (NY-TOR)18 million sharesResources 25 million +C o s t p e r O z Reserve.$450 Cornerstone investment of the AgAu Portfolio. “Bombproof” gold investment. The lowest-cost and fastest growing multi-million ounce gold producer. (-$

62、300) Canada/USA production. Significant Silver exposure Highly liquid Exchange Traded Derivatives and Options markets. Control one of the worlds most lucrative and under-explored Gold zones. Red Lake. Massive exploration upside potential and budget. Dividends. Debt Free Non Hedger. Reserves calculat

63、ed at $550Goldcorp IncGolden Star Resources LimitedProfileListingAMEX, TSEProduction p.a300KReserves (P+P)5.1 MioMine Life12+ yearsNo. of Operations3Share PriceUS$0.80Market CapUS$200 mioShares Issued240mioWAV (NY-TOR)15 million sharesResources 2 million ozsC o s t p e r O z Reserve$80AgAu Capital s

64、elects appropriate Precious Metal equity investments following intensive analysis focussed on maximum leverage to the gold price via proprietary qualitative and quantitative measures. Examples such as :貴金屬投資技術分析英文版 (51)課件Portfolio Composition/Stock SelectionAppendix Silver Standard Resources IncProf

65、ileListing:NASDAQ, TSEProduction p.a.Soon to Commence Reserves (P+P off US$11 ag)200 Mio +Mine Life10 YEARS+No of Projects15Share Price US$18Market Cap1.2 Billion US$Shares issued67 mioWAV (NY-TOR)8 million sharesResources(ag) 1 Billion +C o s t p e r O z Reserve Ag.US$6 Cornerstone Silver investmen

66、t. Largest in-ground silver resources in the world. Projects in USA, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Argentina. Control of historic silver producing areas Pure Silver Call Option High cut-off grades for Reserve and Resource estimates Transition to Silver Producer on budget and timetable. Exchange Traded Derivatives and Options markets. Massive exploration upside potential and budget. Debt Free Non Hedger.Lihir Gold LimitedProfileListingASX,TSE, Nasdaq Production p.a1mioReserves (P+P)2