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1、河北建筑工程學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）外文資料翻譯 系別： 管理系 專(zhuān)業(yè)： 工程管理 班級(jí)： 管072 姓名： 學(xué)號(hào)： 2007310223 外文出處： Project Managers Spotlight on Risk Management Kim Heldman 附 件：1、外文原文；2、外文資料翻譯譯文。指導(dǎo)教師評(píng)語(yǔ)：簽字： 年 月 日Defining Risk Response PlansYouve identified your risks, analyzed them for their impacts on the project, assigned probabilities an
2、d impact values, determined an expected value, and ranked them in order. Youve also determined which of the risks, given all those conditions, require response plans. This chapter discusses what risk response plans are, the techniques for developing response plans, and how to document and write plan
3、s for those risks that have a high probability and high impact on the project. Lets get to it.Risk Response PlanningRisk Response Planning is the process of deciding what actions to take to educe threats (especially to schedule and cost) while taking advantage of he opportunities other risks present
4、.Typically, youll want to develop risk response plans for risks with the potential for high probability and high impact. It isnt efficient to spent time writing response plans for risks youve determined arent likely to occur and wont impact the project significantly if they do. For example, if Im bu
5、ilding a tourist center in the Mojave Desert, I wouldnt spend time on a risk response plan for the possibility of rain（It does rain in the Mojave an average of 2.5 inches per year), so the possibility exists, but its highly unlikely it would impact my project. Ill deal with these types of risks in t
6、he “Contingency Planning” section a little later in this chapter.Remember that risk management planning, including the development of risk response plans, isnt a one-time exercise. As you progress through the project and learn more about potential risk events, youll reevaluate their impacts, which m
7、ay require a change in strategy to deal with the risk and a new or revised response plan. And even though Ive focused primarily on risks that prevent you from meeting the goals of the project, dont forget that risks can produce opportunities.Uncertain CertaintyOne thing is certain: your project does
8、 have risks, and if you choose to ignore them, your project will have an uncertain outcome. All project risk is closely linked with the availability of information and communication, or the lack thereof, as Ive talked about previously. The more information you have, the more likely youre able to pre
9、dict the risk event and its impacts.And the better youre able to predict risk impacts, the better youll be at creating risk response plans.When thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk out-comes generally fall into three categories:* Known risks with predictable outcomes* Known ris
10、ks with uncertain outcomes* Unknown risks with unpredictable outcomesThese are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outcomes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outcomes of the risk events would be if
11、 they occurred. Unpredictable outcomes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that arent fully identified or known. Lets use a simple example to explain each of these outcomes. Youve decided to paint your garage door this weekend. One risk that could keep you from completing this project is
12、the weather. No problemyou cruise the Internet and check out the local forecast, which predicts clear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Internet site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers).
13、That means you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outcomes are more difficult because, well, their outcomes arent certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know its going to rain but not know
14、when itll start or how long itll continue. When youre facing project risks with uncertain outcomes, I recommend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isnt always possible.) You should interview stakeholders, research past proj
15、ects, and try to move as far from the uncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better.The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out- comes, says you dont know about the risk and you dont know about its impacts. Its an unknown risk with an unknown o
16、utcome. Suppose youre happily painting away and are three-quarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable outcome has occurred. Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and risk analy
17、sis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarily about uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outcomes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outcomes.The greater your certainty of the outcome, the easier it will be to develop response plans. Fo
18、r example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day youre planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead.Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the rain is coming
19、 but wont start until early afternoon. In that case, you could quickly paint the door in the morning while the sun is still out (or the clouds are rolling in) and then flip open the door so its protected by the garage ceiling until it dries.Purpose of Planning for RisksThe purpose for risk planning
20、is to determine the most appropriate response to reduce, control, or take advantage of the risk event. Along with determining the response, youll want to make certain youre choosing the right strategy for the risk event. After determining the strategy to use, youll develop an action plan to put this
21、 strategy into play should the risk event occur.The second purpose for risk planning is to determine a risk owner. I talked about risk owners and their responsibility in Chapter 2, “Identifying and Documenting Risks.” Once the plan is developed, the risk owner is the one held accountable for watchin
22、g for risk triggers, tracking the risk, recommending the implementation of the response plan if the situation war-rants it, and then monitoring the effectiveness of the response plan once its implemented.Risk response planning also has an added benefit. When risk events do occur, youll be able to re
23、main calm, cool, and levelheaded about what to do.Rather than reacting like our friend Ned, youll calmly reach for the response plan document and know what to do. When youre in panic mode, the object is to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. That means you usually deal with things the quicke
24、st and easiest way you can think of just to get everything under control. But getting immediate control doesnt necessarily solve the problem in the long run. Response planning allows you determine the best method for dealing with a risk, which gives you a higher probability of meeting your project g
25、oals.Risk Response TechniquesYou have several strategies for dealing with risk that help reduce or control the impacts of risk events. The most common strategies are as follows:* Avoidance* Transference * Mitigation* Acceptance* Contingency planning* Independent verification and validationEach of th
26、ese techniques has its strengths and weaknesses. Before determining which strategy to use, make certain you understand the type of risk youre dealing with, as well as the severity of the risk. Youll want to choose the strategy that will be the most effective and cost efficient for dealing with the r
27、isk event. If it costs you more to respond to the risk than the consequences of the risk itself, you may want to consider a different strategy.AvoidanceYou may have already guessed that the risk avoidance technique is about avoiding risk. True. It encompasses more than that, however. Risk avoidance
28、techniques include the following:* Avoiding the risk altogether* Eliminating the cause of the risk event* Changing the project plan to protect the objectives from the risk eventLets look at some examples for each technique. Avoiding the risk altogether implies that you know the outcomes of the risk
29、with relative certainty and can take steps to keep the risk event from occurring. Suppose Ned and the photo-shoot team are headed to the airport to catch their flight to Paris. In keeping with Neds usual manner, he has held everyone up to the last second. If they leave any later, they wont have time
30、 to check the million pieces of luggage Ned is bringing and get through security in time to catch the flight. Sherry, the quick-thinking project manager, decides to do a traffic check before leaving. She logs onto the Internet and finds theres been a major accident on the highway they were planning
31、on taking to the airport. To avoid delays and keep them from missing the flight, Sherry decides on an alternate route that bypasses the accident and avoids the risk event.Eliminating the cause of the risk is a technique that works something like this. Sherry knows that the teams luggage looks like e
32、very other piece of luggage theyre likely to see on an airport conveyor belt. The team is carrying some sensitive company information and a few pieces of specialized equipment. Sherry can eliminate the cause of this risk by carrying the company material and specialized equipment on board in their ca
33、rry ones.One of the objectives of the photo assignment is to shoot pictures of Parisians doing everyday tasksstrolling through the park, eating at side-walk cafs, shopping, and so onoutside in the open air. A rainstorm pops up on the day this shoot is supposed to occur. Sherry changes the project pl
34、an by switching an indoor shooting day with the outdoor shooting day to protect the project objectives from the risk event.Avoidance is a great strategy when you can use it. The trouble is it isnt appropriate for every risk, so lets look at some more techniques.定義風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃你已經(jīng)定義風(fēng)險(xiǎn),分析了他們對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響、分配的可能性和有影響
35、的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),決定期望中的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并且把他們按目的排列整齊。在考慮到所有條件的情況下，你決定哪個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。這一章討論對(duì)應(yīng)計(jì)劃的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是什么,開(kāi)發(fā)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的技術(shù)，和如何去寫(xiě)那些關(guān)于出現(xiàn)可能性高，對(duì)項(xiàng)目影響大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)劃，那就讓我們開(kāi)始吧。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃是決定采取什么方法去演繹危險(xiǎn)的程序(尤其是對(duì)進(jìn)度和成本方面)當(dāng)利用他的機(jī)會(huì)的時(shí)候，其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)了。通常,你會(huì)想要開(kāi)發(fā)哪些潛在的高概率和高影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。它不是高效的去花費(fèi)時(shí)間去寫(xiě)那些不可能發(fā)生或者如果發(fā)生也不會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目重要性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),如果我建設(shè)一個(gè)旅游中心在莫哈韋沙漠中,我不會(huì)把時(shí)間花在一個(gè)可能下雨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
36、的應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃上的（莫哈韋沙漠的每年平均降雨量?jī)H為2.5英寸),所以這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)確實(shí)可能存在著,但它幾乎不可能會(huì)影響我的項(xiàng)目。我會(huì)稍后在本章的“應(yīng)急計(jì)劃”部分中處理這些類(lèi)型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。記住,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的規(guī)劃,包括開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃,不是一次性的運(yùn)動(dòng)。當(dāng)你通過(guò)項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)行并且了解更多的潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響,你就會(huì)重新評(píng)估它們的影響,這可能要求改變戰(zhàn)略來(lái)解決這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和一個(gè)新的或是修正過(guò)的應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。盡管已經(jīng)提前關(guān)注哪些可能阻止你達(dá)到項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但也不要忘記風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能產(chǎn)生機(jī)會(huì)。不確定的確定性有一件事是肯定的:你的項(xiàng)目有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如果你選擇去忽略它們,你的項(xiàng)目將有一個(gè)不確定的結(jié)果。所有的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與信息及交流的可用性密切相關(guān),
37、或缺乏信息及交流,正如我一直在前面談?wù)摰囊粯?。你擁有的信息越?就越有可能你能預(yù)測(cè)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件及其帶來(lái)的影響。你越能更好的確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，你就越能更好的創(chuàng)造風(fēng)險(xiǎn)引對(duì)計(jì)劃在考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃時(shí)，注意風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)果一般可以把它分為三大類(lèi):已知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為可預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的；已知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為不確定結(jié)果的；未知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的；這是相當(dāng)明確的。一個(gè)已知的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是那些你知道有可能發(fā)生的事情。術(shù)語(yǔ)可預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果是指當(dāng)某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生時(shí)你可以通過(guò)一些原因來(lái)知道這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響和結(jié)果是什么。不可預(yù)知的結(jié)果是指那些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響和結(jié)果不能被充分認(rèn)識(shí)及了解。讓我們用一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的例子,去解釋每一個(gè)這樣的結(jié)果。例如你決定在這個(gè)周末把你的車(chē)庫(kù)門(mén)重新
38、刷一遍。其中一個(gè)可能阻礙你完成這個(gè)目的的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)便是天氣情況。沒(méi)有問(wèn)題你可以瀏覽網(wǎng)絡(luò)來(lái)查看一下當(dāng)?shù)氐奶鞖忸A(yù)報(bào),預(yù)報(bào)空氣清晰、天空晴朗,而陣雨的可能性很小。你有一些方法去學(xué)習(xí)關(guān)于天氣的知識(shí)(英特網(wǎng)網(wǎng)站)和確定影響的可能性(有百分之十的可能性下陣雨)。這意味著你知道,通過(guò)可預(yù)測(cè)的可能性,這樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會(huì)很低。要知道不確定結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加困難,嗯,因?yàn)樗麄兊慕Y(jié)果是不確定的。然而,不確定因素的數(shù)量是可能變化的。例如,你可能知道要下雨了,但不知道何時(shí)將會(huì)開(kāi)始下雨和雨會(huì)持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。當(dāng)你正在面對(duì)的是不確定結(jié)果的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),我建議你盡你最大力量去學(xué)習(xí)所有關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其可能產(chǎn)生影響的知識(shí)。(因?yàn)橛绊懯菬o(wú)法預(yù)料的，
39、這并不總是有可能預(yù)料到的。)你應(yīng)該同利益相關(guān)者見(jiàn)面，研究過(guò)去的項(xiàng)目,并盡可能從這些不確定結(jié)果的項(xiàng)目中得到相關(guān)信息。你知道的越多越好。前面列出的最后一點(diǎn),未知的并且不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，是指你不知道某個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并且不知道它會(huì)產(chǎn)生的影響。這是一個(gè)未知結(jié)果及不可預(yù)料到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。假設(shè)你正在快樂(lè)地刷車(chē)庫(kù)門(mén)，并且當(dāng)一群鵝恰好飛過(guò)你的屋子時(shí)，你已完成了四分之三的工作。你猜對(duì)了，一個(gè)能不提前知道的并且不可預(yù)知結(jié)果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。許多工程決策的制定都沒(méi)有從知道所有事實(shí)后這方面中受益，并且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是沒(méi)有可以期望的。風(fēng)險(xiǎn),畢竟,主要是關(guān)于不確定性。分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以告訴你風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能發(fā)生的結(jié)果,和應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃闡述怎樣處理這些結(jié)果。你確
40、定的結(jié)果可能性越多,就越容易開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。例如,如果你知道在你刷車(chē)庫(kù)那天下雨是一個(gè)既定事實(shí),你就可以相當(dāng)準(zhǔn)確的設(shè)計(jì)你的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。你可以推遲刷車(chē)庫(kù)到新的一天,而這天可以用打掃地板代替?；蛘?也許你有理由的確定知道那天會(huì)下雨,但直到下午才會(huì)開(kāi)始下雨。在這種情況下,在早上你要盡可能很快就把門(mén)刷完當(dāng)天空依舊晴朗時(shí)(或云卷),然后向里開(kāi)門(mén)從而使門(mén)上的漆被屋頂保護(hù)，直到漆干了。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃的目的是決定最恰當(dāng)?shù)姆磻?yīng)來(lái)減少、控制、或者利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。隨著確定應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃,你會(huì)想要確保你對(duì)此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件選擇了正確的應(yīng)對(duì)方法。之后在確定策略使用時(shí),你要做出活動(dòng)計(jì)劃來(lái)使這個(gè)策略發(fā)揮作用當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生的時(shí)
41、候。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃的第二個(gè)目的是確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的所有者。我在第二章“辨識(shí)、記錄的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”中已經(jīng)提到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擁有者及他們應(yīng)負(fù)的責(zé)任。一旦計(jì)劃完成,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的業(yè)主負(fù)責(zé)觀察風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生,跟蹤風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如果出現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的征兆時(shí)業(yè)主要建議實(shí)施應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃,并且一旦風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃實(shí)施要監(jiān)測(cè)它的有效性。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃也有一個(gè)額外的好處。當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事情真的發(fā)生時(shí),你就能保持沉著,冷靜,及清醒的頭腦從而知道做什么。而不是像我們的朋友-奈德那樣的反應(yīng),你會(huì)平靜地得到應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃文件,進(jìn)而知道該怎么做。當(dāng)你在恐慌模式時(shí),這樣做的目的是為了盡可能快的解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。這意味著你通常通過(guò)你能想到的最快的最簡(jiǎn)單的方式去處理事情，從而使你能讓每件事都在你的掌握之中。但
42、是,在長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的計(jì)劃中直接的控制不是必要的解決問(wèn)題的方法。應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃允許你確定解決風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最佳方法,這讓你有更高的幾率達(dá)到你項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)技術(shù)你有幾個(gè)策略處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn),它們有助于減少或控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的影響。最常見(jiàn)的策略是如下:1、避免2、轉(zhuǎn)移*緩解3、接受4、應(yīng)急計(jì)劃5、獨(dú)立的驗(yàn)證和確認(rèn)每一種技術(shù)有其優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn)。在決定使用哪個(gè)策略之前,你要確定你了解你正在處理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類(lèi)型,以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的嚴(yán)重程度。你會(huì)想選擇處理這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件最有效花費(fèi)最高效的方法。如果它需要你比風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本身的結(jié)果花費(fèi)更多成本,你可能要考慮一個(gè)不同的策略。避免你可能已經(jīng)猜到我的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范技術(shù)是關(guān)于怎樣避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。真的。它包括的不僅僅是那個(gè),然而，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
43、規(guī)避技術(shù)包括下列事項(xiàng):避免隨之而來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的起因事件改變項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃, 來(lái)從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件中保護(hù)目標(biāo)讓我們來(lái)看一些各個(gè)技術(shù)的例子。完全避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意味著你知道結(jié)果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相對(duì)確實(shí)性,可以采取措施阻止風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的發(fā)生。假設(shè)奈德和球隊(duì)前往機(jī)場(chǎng),搭乘航班去巴黎。為了保持奈德自己平時(shí)的習(xí)慣,他已經(jīng)提出了每個(gè)人都提高到最后一秒。如果他們離開(kāi)哪怕晚一點(diǎn)點(diǎn),他們就沒(méi)有時(shí)間來(lái)檢查內(nèi)德帶來(lái)的萬(wàn)件行李,并且還要經(jīng)過(guò)安全檢查趕上那趟航班。雪莉是一個(gè)應(yīng)急項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理,決定在離開(kāi)之前去做一個(gè)交通檢查。她登錄互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們正計(jì)劃去機(jī)場(chǎng)的那個(gè)高速公路上有重大的事故。為了避免延遲和避免錯(cuò)過(guò)這次航班,雪莉決定另選路線(xiàn),避開(kāi)這個(gè)事故從而避免了事
44、故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的消除是類(lèi)似于這樣的一些技術(shù)性工作。雪莉知道，團(tuán)隊(duì)的行李看起來(lái)很像在機(jī)場(chǎng)運(yùn)輸帶上看到的某種行李。這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)會(huì)具有一些敏感的公司信息和幾件專(zhuān)業(yè)的設(shè)備。當(dāng)在飛機(jī)上的時(shí)候，雪莉能夠通過(guò)使用隨身攜帶的公司材料和特殊設(shè)備來(lái)消除這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的原因。這個(gè)照片的任務(wù)目的之一，就是拍攝巴黎人每天的所作所為，例如在公園散步、在；路邊的咖啡店吃東西、購(gòu)物或者類(lèi)似的其他戶(hù)外活動(dòng)。當(dāng)暴風(fēng)雨突然來(lái)臨的時(shí)候，這樣的攝影就會(huì)被假定為會(huì)發(fā)生的。雪莉通過(guò)切換室內(nèi)外當(dāng)天拍攝的內(nèi)容，來(lái)改變項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃，從而在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件中保護(hù)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)。當(dāng)你能夠規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，這是一個(gè)有效的辦法。麻煩的地方在于，它不是對(duì)每個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都適用，所以，讓我們來(lái)一些更多的技術(shù)方法。
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