d件 長(zhǎng)春分公司投資計(jì)劃及本地網(wǎng)規(guī)劃匯報(bào)1028

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1、單擊此處編輯母版文本樣式,的,的,單擊此處編輯母版標(biāo)題樣式,一級(jí)標(biāo)題,華黑,/Arial,黑色,(0,0,0),16-20,號(hào),正文,華楷,/Arial,黑色,(0,0,0),14-16,號(hào),250,190,0,160,160,160,236,229,206,241,212,175,224,142,121,204,0,0,15,75,105,主色系,局部,/,輔色系,E08E79,CC0000,ECE5CE,F1D4AF,A0A0A0,0F4B69,FA,BE00,SwiffChart,16,進(jìn)制編號(hào),*,長(zhǎng)春市聯(lián)通投資計(jì)劃及,本地網(wǎng)規(guī)劃匯報(bào)提綱,中國(guó)聯(lián)通長(zhǎng)春市分公司,2024年12月11日,

2、內(nèi)部資料 注意保密,2011,年度投資計(jì)劃完成情況說(shuō)明,一,目 錄,2012-2014,年本地網(wǎng)規(guī)劃目標(biāo)及說(shuō)明,二,2012,年投資重點(diǎn)及需求,三,其它相關(guān)說(shuō)明,四,1,2,主要環(huán)境影響因素及分析,吉林省的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境為未來(lái)的通信業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展提供了良好的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，但電信政策管制和電信市場(chǎng)不斷加大的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，將使吉林聯(lián)通在經(jīng)營(yíng)發(fā)展中面臨較大挑戰(zhàn)。,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境向好,電信政策,環(huán)境分析主要結(jié)論,對(duì)吉林聯(lián)通的影響,國(guó)家大力推進(jìn)社會(huì)主義新農(nóng)村建設(shè)，家電下鄉(xiāng)活動(dòng)推進(jìn)力度逐步加大，政府大力推動(dòng),“,兩化融合,”,，全社會(huì)信息化深入推進(jìn),城鎮(zhèn)化加速為電信業(yè)提供了發(fā)展機(jī)遇，手機(jī)、網(wǎng)民數(shù)量迅猛增長(zhǎng),工信部已將物聯(lián)網(wǎng)

3、納入十二五規(guī)劃中，信息產(chǎn)業(yè)將迎來(lái)巨大發(fā)展商機(jī),物價(jià)上漲,不斷向好的宏觀環(huán)境和日益增加的社會(huì)需求為吉林聯(lián)通的寬帶業(yè)務(wù)及移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)的大力發(fā)展提供了良好的機(jī)遇。,物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的實(shí)施將加快吉林聯(lián)通的移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展速度,網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)投資增加,3G,非對(duì)稱管制,三網(wǎng)融合,手機(jī)實(shí)名制,攜號(hào)轉(zhuǎn)網(wǎng),3G,的非對(duì)稱管制，使聯(lián)通的,3G,優(yōu)勢(shì)逐步減弱,廣電的加入將改變現(xiàn)有的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局，寬帶市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加激烈,手機(jī)實(shí)名制將影響新入網(wǎng)用戶，,說(shuō)服用戶接受難度大，增加運(yùn)營(yíng)商的營(yíng)銷成本,攜號(hào)轉(zhuǎn)網(wǎng)將對(duì)吉林聯(lián)通的服務(wù)提出更高的要求,移動(dòng)公司憑借廣大的客戶群和成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，加大,3G,業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展，注重客戶保有，并開始實(shí)施融合業(yè)務(wù)，將業(yè)務(wù)向?qū)拵У裙?/p>

4、網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù)拓展。,電信公司通過(guò)提速不提價(jià)、存網(wǎng)費(fèi)贈(zèng)手機(jī)、續(xù)費(fèi)有禮等策略發(fā)展寬帶業(yè)務(wù)；通過(guò)終端補(bǔ)貼、組建虛擬網(wǎng)等方式發(fā)展,CDMA,，爭(zhēng)奪移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)。,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)逐步呈現(xiàn)白熱化；電信、移動(dòng)加大網(wǎng)絡(luò)投資，將分流固話、寬帶業(yè)務(wù)，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將更加激烈，加大了對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)的蠶食，直接影響到吉林聯(lián)通的發(fā)展和收入,電信移動(dòng),(,廣電）,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈,2,規(guī)劃期總體發(fā)展目標(biāo),規(guī)劃期本地網(wǎng)總體發(fā)展目標(biāo)：,完成,主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,6,.,8,%；,CAPEX,年均增長(zhǎng)率,28.1%,；,人力目標(biāo)：從業(yè)人員數(shù)量逐步降低，勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率逐步提高；,利潤(rùn)總額逐年提高，年均提高,12.75%,。,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,201

5、3,年,2014,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,收入,目標(biāo),主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,21,.,8286,23.3528,24,.,9536,26,.,6102,6.,8,%,收入市場(chǎng)份額,38.6%,41.3%,44.1%,47.1%,新增收入市場(chǎng)份額,1.8%,2.7%,2.8%,3%,其中：通信服務(wù)收入,21.6786,23.1728,24.7436,26.3602,6.7%,通信服務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)率,4.9%,6.9%,6.8%,6.5%,6.7%,CAPEX,目標(biāo),資本性支出,(,億元,),65000,138432,136500,136800,28.1%,投資占收比,29.7%,59.2%,54.7%

6、,51.4%,人力,目標(biāo),從業(yè)人員數(shù)量,(,萬(wàn)人,),5.202,5.162,5.132,5.102,-0.6%,勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,(,萬(wàn)元,/,人,),44.1,48.4,53.8,60.1,10.8%,績(jī)效,目標(biāo),利潤(rùn)總額（億元）,3.3989,3.7686,4.3286,4.8715,12.75%,EBITDA,（,億元）,11.025,11.6065,12.3920,13.1610,6.08%,EBITDA,收入率,0.5%,0.5%,0.5%,0.5%,-0.69%,EVA,（,億元）,1.4209,1.7644,2.3707,2.9636,27%,總資產(chǎn)收益率,(ROA),7.47%,8

7、.04%,8.97%,9.80%,100%,3,收入,發(fā)展目標(biāo),規(guī)劃期內(nèi)通信服務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng),6.8,%,。規(guī)劃期末實(shí)現(xiàn),26.,36,億元，收入市場(chǎng)份額為,47.1,%,，較,2011,年提升,8.5,%,。其中移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng),15.8,%,，,3G,業(yè)務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng),47.3,%,；固網(wǎng)收入年均增長(zhǎng),-4.0,%,，其中，寬帶年均增長(zhǎng),2.2,%,，寬帶用戶市場(chǎng)份額,50,%,。,規(guī)劃期末移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)占通服收入比例提高到,63.8%,，,3G,占通服比為,34.2,%,；固網(wǎng)收入占通服比為,36.2,%,，其中，寬帶占通服比為,20.9,%,，固定電話占通服比為,10,%,。,規(guī)劃期內(nèi),

8、3G,業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)較快，年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到,47.3%,，寬帶業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)較為平穩(wěn)，收入穩(wěn)定。,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,2013,年,2014,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入,（億元）,21,.,8286,23.3528,24,.,9536,26,.,6102,6.,8,%,通信服務(wù)收入（億元）,21.6786,23.1728,24.7436,26.3602,6.7%,通信服務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng)率,4.9%,6.9%,6.8%,6.5%,6.7%,移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,10,.,8445,13,.,03410,14,.,8218,16,.,8272,15.8%,其中：,3G,業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,億元,)

9、,2,.,8183,5,.,0160,6,.,8896,9,.,0072,47.3%,3G,增值收入占比,45.0%,45.0%,45.3%,43.8%,46.0%,2G,業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,億元,),8,.,0262,8,.,0181,7,.,9322,7,.,8200,-0.9%,2G,增值收入占比,22%,22%,22%,22%,-0.9%,固網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,11,.,0441,10,.,3187,10,.,1318,9,.,7830,-4.0%,其中：固話業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,億元,),3,.,5341,3,.,1800,2,.,9080,2,.,6400,-9.3%,固話增值收入占比,8.8%

10、,9.3%,9.7%,10.1%,-5.0%,寬帶業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,億元,),5,.,1521,5,.,2248,5,.,4800,5,.,5000,2.2%,寬帶增值業(yè)務(wù)收入占比,4.8%,5.2%,5.5%,6.0%,10%,4,3,移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù),測(cè)算說(shuō)明,規(guī)劃期內(nèi)移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入整體呈穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，,3G,業(yè)務(wù)出于成長(zhǎng)階段，用戶數(shù)和收入增長(zhǎng)較快，,2G,業(yè)務(wù)用戶數(shù)增長(zhǎng)有限，收入呈緩慢下降趨勢(shì)；,隨著,通信市場(chǎng)趨于飽和，規(guī)劃期內(nèi)移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)比較平穩(wěn)；人們消費(fèi)趨于謹(jǐn)慎、向節(jié)約型消費(fèi)模式過(guò)渡，各項(xiàng)生活支出分配合理，通信消費(fèi),ARPU,值呈下降趨勢(shì)。,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,2013,年,20

11、14,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,10,.,8445,13,.,0341,14,.,8218,16,.,8272,15.8%,移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入,年均增長(zhǎng)率,15.9%,20.2%,13.7%,13.5%,15.8%,3G,業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,2,.,8183,5,.,0160,6,.,8896,9,.,0072,47.3%,3G,出帳用戶數(shù)（萬(wàn)）,28.3,55.6,79,103,53.8%,3G,業(yè)務(wù),ARPU,（元,/,月）,83,75,73,73,-4.2%,2G,業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,8,.,0262,8,.,0181,7,.,9322,7,.,8200,-0.9%,2G,業(yè)務(wù)收

12、入,年均增長(zhǎng)率,-1.8%,-0.1%,-1.1%,-1.4%,-0.9%,2G,出帳用戶數(shù)（萬(wàn)）,182,187,195,200,3.2%,2G,業(yè)務(wù),ARPU,（元,/,月）,37,36,34,33,-3.7%,2G/3G,用戶增長(zhǎng)率,規(guī)劃期內(nèi),3G,用戶年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá),53.8%,；,2G,用戶年均增長(zhǎng)率為,3.2%,。,2G/3G ARPU,值情況,規(guī)劃期內(nèi),3G ARPU,由,83,元,/,月降低到,73,元；,2G,ARPU,由,37,元,/,月降低到,33,元。,5,3,固網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù),測(cè)算說(shuō)明,固話業(yè)務(wù)處于飽和階段，收入呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，年均增長(zhǎng)率為,-4.0%,；用戶數(shù)增長(zhǎng)緩慢，年均增長(zhǎng)

13、率為,1.8%,；,寬帶業(yè)務(wù)呈穩(wěn)步上升趨勢(shì)，年均增長(zhǎng)率為,2.2%,，用戶數(shù)逐年穩(wěn)步增加；,隨著市場(chǎng)的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，固話、寬帶,ARPU,值均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)；,規(guī)劃期內(nèi)寬帶接入將進(jìn)一步提速，滿足用戶的高帶寬需求和應(yīng)對(duì)激烈的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，接入網(wǎng)將全面向光纖化推進(jìn)。,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,2013,年,2014,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,固網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,11,.,0441,10,.,3187,10,.,1318,9,.,7830,-4.0%,固網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng)率,-3.5%,-6.6%,-1.8%,-3.4%,-4.0%,寬帶業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,5,.,1521,5,.,2248,5,.,48

14、00,5,.,5000,2.2%,寬帶業(yè)務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng)率,13.7%,1.4%,4.9%,0.4%,2.2%,寬帶業(yè)務(wù)用戶數(shù)（萬(wàn)）,67.5,74,80,86,8.4%,寬帶業(yè)務(wù),ARPU,（元,/,月）,63.6,58.8,57.1,53.9,-5.4%,固話業(yè)務(wù)收入（億元）,3,.,5341,3,.,1800,2,.,9080,2,.,6400,-9.3%,固話業(yè)務(wù)收入年均增長(zhǎng)率,-68.7%,-10.0%,-8.6%,-9.2%,-9.3%,固話業(yè)務(wù)用戶數(shù)（萬(wàn)）,121.38,126.38,127.38,128.18,1.8%,固話業(yè)務(wù),ARPU,（元,/,月）,24.2,21,19,1

15、7.2,-10.8%,寬帶、固話用戶增長(zhǎng)率,規(guī)劃期內(nèi)寬帶,用戶年均增長(zhǎng)率為,8.4%,；,固話用戶年均增長(zhǎng)率為,1.8%,。,寬帶、固話,ARPU,值,規(guī)劃期內(nèi)寬帶,ARPU,由,63.6,元,/,月降到,53.9,元；,固話,ARPU,由,24.2,元,/,月降到,17.2,元。,6,增值業(yè)務(wù),測(cè)算說(shuō)明,3G,增值業(yè)務(wù)收入占比逐年提高，由,45.0%,提高到,69.6%,；,2G,增值業(yè)務(wù)收入占比基本不變，維持在,22%,；,寬帶增值業(yè)務(wù)收入占比逐年提高，由,4.8%,提高到,10%,。,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,2013,年,2014,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,移動(dòng)增值業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,萬(wàn)

16、元,30340.4,40212.0,48654.2,56636.4,23.1%,3G,增值業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,萬(wàn)元,),12682,22572,31203,39432,46.0%,3G,增值收入占比,45.0%,45.0%,64.5%,69.6%,46.0%,2G,增值業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,萬(wàn)元,),17658,17640,17451,17204,-0.9%,2G,增值收入占比,22%,22%,22%,22%,-0.9%,固網(wǎng)增值業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,萬(wàn)元,),3117,2961,2813,2672,-5.0%,固網(wǎng)增值收入占比,8.8%,9.3%,9.7%,10.1%,-5.0%,寬帶增值業(yè)務(wù)收入,(,萬(wàn)元,),2473,2720,2992,3291,10.0%,寬帶增值收入占比,4.8%,5.2%,5.5%,6.0%,10%,指標(biāo),2011,年,2012,年,2013,年,2014,年,規(guī)劃期年均增長(zhǎng)率,無(wú)線上網(wǎng)卡出帳用戶,(,萬(wàn),),3,5,8,13,63.0%,無(wú)線上網(wǎng)卡總流量,(,萬(wàn),MB),31200,33600,36000,38400,7.2%,手機(jī)上網(wǎng)總流量,(,萬(wàn),MB),26400,40