銀行業(yè)中報綜述：中報綜述基本面喜憂參半板塊易守難攻0905

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1、5行業(yè)研究報告 銀行業(yè)2012 年 9 月 4 日中報綜述：基本面喜憂參半，板塊易守難攻核心觀點:謹慎推薦維持評級銀行中報喜憂參半。上市銀行中報同比增長 18.2%，中小銀行保持超過 28%的增長，大型銀行放緩至 14%。利息凈收入增長高于預期，二季度環(huán)比增速較一季度提升 1.2 個百分點至 3.8%；16家上市銀行二季度凈息差 9 升 7 降， 家股份制銀行凈息差回落，反映了重定價周期差異的影響與銀行息差管理的努力；手續(xù)費收入增速繼續(xù)放緩，但利息凈收入超預期增長使得營收增速平穩(wěn)；不良與逾期貸款上升平穩(wěn)，但逾期攀升，逾期貸款余額較年初增加增加 31.3%/1263 億元；核心資本充足率環(huán)比普遍

2、上升。三季度銀行景氣度下滑：1）息差回落壓力較大。三季度貸款利率重定價占比 2-7 成、貸款到期占比 1-2 稱，連續(xù)兩次降息的累計效應開始釋放；2）強調服務實體經(jīng)濟的政策導向會持續(xù)壓制銀行在提升手續(xù)費收入增速的努力，手續(xù)費凈收入增速難以加速；3）經(jīng)濟增速放緩使得客戶的經(jīng)營能力有所惡化，逾期金額還未見頂，預計三季度不良余額將繼續(xù)溫和緩慢上升，但在可控制范圍內。調整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%。隱含年內繼續(xù)降息 25BP 的假設，大型銀行盈利增速下調至 11.2%，股份制銀行下調至 19.2%，城商行下調至 24.2%。分析師郭怡嫻：（8610）6656 8229：執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號：S013

3、0512030001特別鳴謝黃斌輝（8610）8357 4031（）對本報告的編制提供信息相關研究銀行業(yè) 2012 年度策略：轉型進取與穩(wěn)健經(jīng)營并投資建議： 1）三季度行業(yè)景氣度見頂下滑，降息效應開始釋放，重11.12.16不良溫和上升；2）銀行盈利能力緩步下滑，當前估值已基本反2012 年中期策略：貨幣與流動性困局，銀行經(jīng)映銀行基本面回落。銀行經(jīng)營轉向防御，銀行板塊易守難攻，維持“謹慎推薦”評級?；谟掷m(xù)能力和穩(wěn)健風格偏好，推薦組合調整為興業(yè)銀行、民生銀行、工商銀行、農業(yè)銀行。需要關注的重點公司營轉向防御12.07.08股票股票EPS(元元)PE（X）ROE名稱民生銀行興業(yè)銀行工商銀行農

4、業(yè)銀行代碼6000166011666013986012882010A0.663.090.470.292011A1.052.370.600.382012E1.202.470.660.442013E1.262.700.660.452010A8.84.08.08.42011A5.55.26.36.52012E4.85.05.75.62013E4.64.55.75.42012E22.9%22.3%22.2%20.5%資料來源：中國銀河證券研究部證券研究報告請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)目 錄一、盈利能力處于高位，內生資本補充增強.6（一）利息凈收入強勁增長，手續(xù)費

5、凈收入同比加速回落 . 6（二）盈利能力處于高位，核心資本充足率略升 . 7二、凈息差因結構調整分化，降息重定價構成下行動力.12三、逾期攀升顯示資產壓力，撥貸比繼續(xù)上升.18表目錄 .24請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。1。，行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)基本面喜憂參半。營收方面，利息凈收入保持強勁增長，二季度利息凈收入環(huán)比增長 3.8%，較一季度增速高 1.2 個百分點；手續(xù)費凈收入加速下滑，二季度環(huán)比下滑 10.8%；不良貸款穩(wěn)定，但逾期攀升，不良余額環(huán)比增加 1.8%，逾期金額較年初增長 31.3%；核心資本充足率環(huán)比普遍上升。中報同比增長 18.2%。大型銀行同比增 14%，

6、較預期高 0.4 個百分點，股份行同比增 34.1%較預期高 5.1 個百分點，城商行同比增 28.7%較預期高 5 個百分點。同比增速較快的是平安銀行(42.9%)、華夏銀行（42.4%）、光大銀行（40.3%）和興業(yè)銀行（39.8%），增速較慢的則包括中行（7.6%）、工行（12.5%）。從盈利質量看，民生、興業(yè)、寧波、南京、北京較為扎實（表1）結構調整，凈息差環(huán)比普遍上行。大行普遍小幅上升，股份行普遍回落，城商行小幅上升。上市銀行凈利息收入環(huán)比增速由一季度的 2.6%擴大至 3.8%。結構調整是息差管理的要點，結構調整包括：1）貸款久期的縮短，通過長期貸款到期釋放資金發(fā)放短期貸款，拉升整

7、體貸款收益率；2）提升中小企業(yè)貸款占比，提升整體風險定價水平；3）加息周期效應不同，大型銀行重定價期限較長，基于加息周期的拉升效應尚未完全釋放。結構調整改善息差的空間有限，降息后的貸款重定價構成未來息差下行的最大壓力。重定價結構、客戶結構的差異將會是息差分化的主要因素。手續(xù)費凈收入增速加快下行。上半年手續(xù)費凈收入同比增長 7.6%，17.3%，較一季度同比增速 17.3%下降 9.7 個百分點。大型銀行手續(xù)費凈收入增速下降至 2.5%，中小銀行保持較快增速，股份行同比增 33.9%，城商行同比增 45.7%。大型銀行增速較一季度下降 9.7 個百分點，股份行增速較一季度下降 12.8 個百分點

8、，城商行上升 2.9 個百分點。強調服務實體經(jīng)濟的政策導向，會持續(xù)壓制銀行在提升手續(xù)費收入增速的努力。我們判斷，基于中間業(yè)務收入占比的差異，大中小行的手續(xù)費收入增速會呈現(xiàn)較大的分化。逾期攀升預示資產壓力，撥備計提處于較高水平。不良貸款余額環(huán)比增加 1.8%，上半年逾期貸款余額環(huán)比增加 31.3%/1263 億元，二季度信用成本同比提升 24BP 至 0.50%，上半年撥備計提同比增加 7.5%。撥貸比環(huán)比提升 11BP 至 2.61%。從撥備覆蓋率提升幅度看，興業(yè)、華夏、農行、建行的撥備計提較為充分。資本充足率和核心資本充足率上升。核心資本充足率普遍上升，資本充足率平均上升11BP。部分銀行核

9、心資本充足率下降幅度較大，包括北京銀行（-0.87%），南京銀行（-0.32%）平安銀行（-0.19%），寧波銀行（-0.14%）。隨著資本達標期限延長至 2018 年底，我們認為近期上市銀行再融資補充資本壓力不大。三季度銀行景氣度下滑：1）息差回落壓力較大。三季度貸款利率重定價占比 2-7 成、貸款到期占比 1-2 稱，連續(xù)兩次降息的累計效應開始釋放；2）強調服務實體經(jīng)濟的政策導向會持續(xù)壓制銀行在提升手續(xù)費收入增速的努力，手續(xù)費凈收入增速難以加速；3）經(jīng)濟增速放緩使得客戶的經(jīng)營能力有所惡化，逾期金額還未見頂，預計三季度不良余額將繼續(xù)溫和緩慢上升，但在可控制范圍內。請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河

10、證券股份公司免責聲明。2行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)調整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%。隱含年內繼續(xù)降息。隱含年內繼續(xù)降息 25BP 的假設，大型銀行盈利增速下調至 11.2%，股份制銀行下調至 19.2%，城商行下調至 24.2%。行業(yè)評級維持為“謹慎推薦”：1）三季度行業(yè)景氣度見頂下滑，降息效應開始釋放，不良溫和上升；2）銀行盈利能力緩步下滑，當前估值已基本反映銀行基本面回落。銀行經(jīng)營轉向防御，銀行板塊易守難攻，維持“謹慎推薦”評級?；谟掷m(xù)能力和穩(wěn)健風格偏好，推薦組合調整為興業(yè)銀行、民生銀行、工商銀行、農業(yè)銀行。請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。3行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)表

11、 1：2012 年中報業(yè)績概覽百萬元工行建行中行農行交行華夏大型銀行股份制城商行上市銀行盈利數(shù)據(jù)凈利息收入凈手續(xù)費收入營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用撥備前利潤撥備凈利潤2040585480426548684216178895192371231601696924924322700571668152656147381062831240543425017962763729106209923771601167685389292097338331212642122772804995839410962736422350147574767331088171941999194529295101452068607572388

12、3188188955493326426611755736574126312473134497930352711395218836926687121855199132169230417047159882446107439911092353361282061447425816112102790545229同比增速凈利息收入凈手續(xù)費收入營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用撥備前利潤撥備稅前利潤凈利潤16.9%1.9%14.1%15.4%13.0%14.0%12.6%12.5%16.5%3.3%15.8%15.2%14.2%5.8%14.7%14.5%12.6%-2.1%8.1%12.7%3.1%-24.8%7.0%7.

13、6%15.9%4.8%13.9%16.7%12.1%-17.8%21.4%20.7%18.5%9.1%18.9%14.4%19.5%28.9%18.2%17.8%20.6%30.9%22.6%18.1%26.9%-10.9%42.7%42.4%15.9%2.5%13.6%15.1%11.7%-4.0%14.0%14.0%30.8%33.9%32.4%25.9%36.8%47.4%35.0%34.1%34.4%45.7%36.6%23.0%43.5%212.5%28.3%28.7%19.6%7.6%17.9%17.8%17.2%7.5%18.4%18.2%驅動因素（ %）生息資產同比凈息差營業(yè)費

14、用率信用成本(年化)14.52.5431.70.47民生17.22.6231.60.43中信11.32.0835.50.28浦發(fā)12.42.8039.70.78招行23.52.3931.90.53深發(fā)展18.62.6947.80.65興業(yè)14.72.5034.20.49光大27.62.7537.50.59寧波30.12.4730.60.74南京17.82.5634.90.51北京盈利數(shù)據(jù)凈利息收入28.2%23.9%25.5%22.2%55.5%56.2%34.1%41.0%25.4%35.3%凈手續(xù)費收入26.7%38.7%17.6%19.2%134.0% 64.0%29.9%73.3%41

15、.9%39.5%營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用撥備前利潤32.4%24.0%37.3%25.1%20.4%27.9%25.5%13.6%35.1%24.0%24.1%24.0%61.7%72.0%53.5%57.1%35.3%70.0%32.9%28.3%35.6%36.5%23.5%46.1%36.7%26.8%42.3%36.5%21.2%43.1%撥備24.6%30.8%55.9%2.0%114.9% 766.3%9.1%23.6%66.3%623.9%稅前利潤凈利潤39.6%36.9%27.3%28.9%33.1%33.5%27.5%25.7%46.4%42.9%41.5%39.8%40.5%40.

16、3%34.9%30.4%38.4%37.4%23.2%25.5%同比增速凈利息收入凈手續(xù)費收入營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用撥備前利潤稅前利潤凈利潤41.5%74.1%45.9%25.8%58.8%49.7%47.7%27.6%42.0%28.8%22.3%32.8%33.1%31.6%30.9%24.8%31.0%24.6%37.7%30.9%30.3%24.1%23.4%27.2%26.1%27.9%33.0%32.2%55.8%200.6%67.2%81.9%56.0%45.9%42.7%67.5%62.3%65.0%50.0%74.8%61.7%58.7%31.6%29.4%35.3%22.8%42

17、.5%43.7%41.1%38.7%41.7%42.1%21.8%58.7%30.7%26.8%25.3%39.3%34.3%36.1%33.3%33.4%31.7%33.1%44.7%35.4%24.3%39.5%33.0%33.8%驅動因素（ %）生息資產同比凈息差營業(yè)費用率信用成本(年化)19.03.1937.70.8429.92.6135.80.3323.62.5136.40.3722.82.9138.80.5373.12.3947.00.4732.82.7235.31.0725.22.7935.30.5317.93.1138.40.3926.82.5333.60.8435.02.31

18、26.60.77資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。4行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)表 2：調整：調整 2012 年盈利增速至 13.1%2012， %生息資產凈息差利息凈收入 非息收入營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用減值計提凈利潤工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京12.8%12.6%12.4%12.8%16.1%17.1%21.5%22.8%17.7%16.8%36.3%25.4%18.3%8.4%22.3%24.7%-0.7%-1.7%-3.6%-6.4%-2.6%-4.2%-6.8%-8.1%-3.7%-3.8%-7.6%2.8%3

19、.2%14.5%-4.6%-1.4%12.0%10.7%8.3%5.6%13.1%12.2%13.2%12.8%13.3%12.3%26.0%28.9%22.1%24.2%16.7%23.0%3.8%4.5%1.1%4.6%13.0%24.3%29.3%22.1%20.9%18.8%38.2%31.3%24.9%12.8%38.4%25.6%10.0%9.2%6.1%5.4%13.1%13.4%16.6%14.2%14.0%13.7%27.8%29.3%22.5%22.6%19.5%23.2%6.9%7.8%5.6%5.7%10.9%13.0%13.2%13.0%13.7%13.0%28.0%

20、26.8%22.2%19.1%18.3%25.5%18.0%4.4%12.3%-26.4%16.3%-5.0%17.8%13.9%0.3%-1.7%68.8%105.2%27.6%25.4%-4.5%3.8%10.6%11.0%5.7%17.1%12.8%20.9%22.3%15.6%16.7%15.9%20.9%24.3%22.2%20.9%24.0%25.5%貸款增速成本收入比 信用成本ROAETire1 CAR風 險資 產增速不良率撥貸比工行建行中行農行交行0華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京12.7%13.6%11.1%12.2%13.1%12.5%14.5%13.1%12.

21、5%15.0%13.8%15.6%13.1%14.1%19.4%19.9%19.1%29.2%29.5%33.0%36.0%29.2%0.0%41.5%35.8%29.5%29.0%36.0%40.0%31.0%32.1%35.2%30.5%27.0%0.4%0.5%0.3%0.8%0.5%0.0%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.6%22.2%21.5%17.1%20.5%17.6%0.0%16.2%22.9%18.9%19.7%21.1%13.9%22.3%21.2%19.3%17.1%18.4%9.9%10.4%9.4%8.9%10.2%

22、0.0%7.9%8.3%9.2%9.4%9.5%9.9%9.2%7.7%11.1%10.5%10.0%19.8%22.1%21.1%23.9%25.2%#DIV/0!26.8%30.6%26.0%14.6%26.0%22.9%32.8%21.7%29.3%29.9%32.2%1.0%1.2%1.2%1.4%0.9%0.0%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.6%2.6%2.8%2.3%4.8%2.4%0.0%3.1%2.6%1.9%2.4%2.4%2.0%1.8%2.5%1.9%2.7%2.5%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部請務必閱讀正文

23、最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。5行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)表 3：調整：調整 2013 年盈利增速至 1.7%2013， %生息資產凈息差利息凈收入 非息收入營業(yè)收入營業(yè)費用減值計提凈利潤工行建行中行農行交行0華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大0寧波南京北京10.6%11.4%12.2%12.3%14.3%0.0%14.5%18.2%14.0%13.3%15.6%20.4%18.0%17.1%0.0%17.8%17.3%15.8%-7.5%-9.8%-10.4%-8.9%-10.7%0.0%-10.9%-13.3%-11.2%-9.4%-11.0%-13.0%-11.0%-11.4%0.0%-1

24、3.1%-11.4%-10.9%2.3%0.4%0.5%2.3%2.1%1.5%2.0%2.5%1.2%2.6%2.9%4.8%5.1%3.7%3.1%2.4%3.9%3.2%6.1%6.2%6.5%7.6%11.9%7.7%15.3%18.1%16.5%18.0%15.1%19.4%23.3%22.2%18.5%17.1%16.1%23.1%3.2%1.7%2.2%3.3%4.0%2.9%3.4%6.2%3.7%4.2%5.5%7.1%7.9%6.4%5.6%4.3%5.7%5.1%4.5%1.8%2.0%3.3%4.0%3.1%4.6%4.7%2.3%4.2%5.5%6.5%6.4%6.4

25、%5.1%3.9%5.1%5.0%26.7%6.4%27.0%5.5%5.1%0.0%14.1%-0.2%18.8%9.3%13.6%20.7%42.8%2.8%0.0%12.3%15.0%7.2%-0.5%0.9%-0.6%2.7%3.8%1.3%3.1%4.7%3.7%2.5%3.3%-0.2%9.7%5.5%4.0%4.1%3.5%4.2%貸款增速成本收入比 信用成本ROAETire1 CAR風 險資 產增速不良率撥貸比工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京11.3%11.9%10.9%11.5%12.6%12.7%11.5%11.9%13.2%12.2%13.

26、1%13.0%12.0%17.8%17.4%17.9%29.5%29.3%32.8%36.0%29.0%41.5%35.2%29.0%29.0%36.0%39.8%30.5%32.1%35.0%30.3%27.0%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%19.2%18.9%15.3%18.6%14.8%14.7%19.3%17.0%17.3%17.4%11.2%18.9%17.1%17.2%15.4%15.4%10.3%10.8%9.3%9.0%10.0%7.8%8.6%9.3%9.7%9.6%10.4%9

27、.4%9.5%10.9%10.3%10.0%10.1%10.9%12.3%11.8%12.9%13.9%15.0%12.8%12.7%14.1%14.6%14.0%16.9%17.5%16.1%12.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%1.4%0.7%0.9%0.9%1.0%0.7%2.8%2.9%2.4%5.5%2.6%3.3%3.0%2.2%2.6%2.6%2.4%2.1%2.6%2.1%2.9%2.6%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。-6。行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)表 4：90 天以上逾期與

28、不良、關注之比較年初上升 2.5 個百分點90 天以內逾期/（不良+逾期）工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行深發(fā)展興業(yè)08H130.6%20.1%43.6%26.5%25.3%41.4%39.8%40.7%38.6%84.1%20.3%08A25.7%19.6%23.9%8.7%26.4%24.1%37.5%32.2%26.4%34.2%39.8%18.9%09H129.6%22.9%39.4%25.5%25.5%33.3%45.0%36.2%41.1%62.5%25.7%09A24.3%20.4%22.9%13.0%28.2%30.6%32.8%43.3%36.8%35.2%64.8%

29、30.9%10H123.1%17.8%19.8%13.5%23.7%33.7%28.9%42.0%34.9%33.6%61.4%34.8%10A21.4%14.3%17.6%13.1%18.7%24.9%28.4%37.4%34.3%32.5%53.2%30.8%11H120.3%12.9%16.4%12.2%18.5%22.0%27.3%41.7%40.6%30.5%62.3%37.9%11A19.0%13.1%15.0%11.9%19.0%24.5%27.2%24.1%30.7%27.4%35.6%38.1%12H119.2%17.6%17.7%13.0%17.7%34.6%35.4%36

30、.8%40.5%29.8%62.6%41.1%光大20.5%28.9%29.6%26.4%31.7%26.6%寧波南京北京大行股份行城商行合計全部合計5.1%15.3%40.0%30.1%39.0%28.2%31.3%4.6%7.4%23.2%18.2%28.0%16.8%19.2%6.8%7.6%23.8%29.7%36.0%17.6%30.2%17.5%23.0%25.2%19.7%34.8%23.5%21.1%18.5%19.6%23.8%18.4%35.3%22.0%19.6%15.7%11.4%18.8%16.4%32.0%16.8%17.7%17.8%9.8%17.6%15.4%3

31、2.4%16.0%16.8%20.6%8.7%11.9%14.8%28.6%12.7%16.1%22.3%8.6%13.8%16.7%36.1%14.0%18.6%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部一、 盈利能力處于高位，內生資本補充增強（一）利息凈收入強勁增長，手續(xù)費凈收入同比加速回落上半年，上市銀行凈利潤 5452 億元，占上市公司凈利潤總額 10144 億元的 53.7%，較年初提升 8.5 個百分點。銀行（18.2%）與非金融性企業(yè)（-16.2%）的利潤同比增速相差 34.4 個百分點。上半年上市銀行 ROAE23.3%，較 2011 年提升 2.3 個百分點（表 5）撥備前利潤環(huán)

32、比下滑 0.2 個百分點，分化明顯（表 6）。利息凈收入增長略超預期抵消手續(xù)費凈收入增速環(huán)比顯著下降。營收同比增長 17.9%，由凈利息收入同比增 19.6%，手續(xù)費凈收入同比增 7.6%推動（表 7）凈利息收入同比增 19.6%，略超預期。凈利息收入環(huán)比增速由一季度的 2.6%提升至 3.8%（表 8）。華夏（13.7%）、興業(yè)（11.2%）、寧波（11.3%）、南京（11.5%）、北京（12.3%）利息凈收入環(huán)比增長超過 10%，另外有 5 家銀行環(huán)比增速超過 4.5%。在央行降息前信貸需求不足還沒有給銀行息差帶來太大壓力，這個現(xiàn)象值得關注。請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明

33、。7行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)大型銀行手續(xù)費凈收入增速加快下行，中小銀行保持較快增長（表 9）。中報手續(xù)費凈收入同比增長 7.6%，較一季度同比增速 17.3%下降 9.7 個百分點。大型銀行手續(xù)費凈收入增速下降至 2.5%，中小銀行保持較快增速，股份行同比增 33.9%，城商行同比增 45.7%。股份行增速較一季度下降 12.8 個百分點，城商行上升 2.9 個百分點。從銀行中報披露來看，與信貸相關的融資顧問、擔保手續(xù)費收入下降是增速回落的主因。通過金融創(chuàng)新提升中間業(yè)務收入占比是銀行轉型方向，但強調服務實體經(jīng)濟的政策導向，會持續(xù)壓制銀行在提升手續(xù)費收入增速的努力。我們判斷，基于中間業(yè)務收入占比的差

34、異，大中小行的手續(xù)費收入增速會呈現(xiàn)較大的分化。成本收入比略降，營業(yè)費用率同比基本持平（表 10、表 11）。上半年成本收入比下降 0.7個百分點，營業(yè)費用率同比下降 0.05 個百分點。營業(yè)費用率上升主要有營業(yè)稅金及附加推動。信用成本繼續(xù)處于較高水平（表 12）。二季度信用成本同比提升 24BP 至 0.50%，上半年撥備計提同比增加 7.5%。（二）盈利能力處于高位，核心資本充足率略升隨著銀行盈利能力上升， 內生資本補充能力獲得提高，核心資本充足率普遍上升，資本充足率平均上升 11BP(表 13、14)。部分銀行核心資本充足率下降幅度較大，包括北京銀行（-0.87%），南京銀行（-0.32%

35、），平安銀行（-0.19%），寧波銀行（-0.14%）。資本充足率達標期限延長至 2018 年底，我們認為近期上市銀行再融資補充資本壓力不大。表 5：盈利能力繼續(xù)提升，：盈利能力繼續(xù)提升，ROAE 較年初提升 2.2 個百分點ROAE工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京大行股份行城商行合計200819.4%20.9%14.2%17.7%20.8%15.2%15.2%14.8%35.8%28.6%4.2%26.0%25.3%15.8%13.7%17.9%24.5%20.5%16.6%200920.1%20.9%16.4%20.5%19.5%13.0%17.1%14.5

36、%24.1%21.2%27.3%24.7%18.8%15.7%13.2%15.8%19.1%18.5%15.2%201022.1%21.5%18.0%21.4%20.2%18.2%18.3%19.3%20.1%22.7%23.3%24.4%19.8%18.1%15.0%17.0%20.5%20.5%16.7%201123.4%22.4%18.2%20.5%20.5%18.6%23.9%20.9%18.4%24.2%19.3%24.7%20.4%18.8%15.7%19.3%21.0%21.7%18.3%2012H24.9%25.2%18.5%24.0%21.7%18.3%26.4%20.9%2

37、1.9%27.0%17.4%27.7%25.7%22.1%19.4%21.7%23.2%23.7%21.3%請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。8行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)全部合計23.5%19.0%20.4%21.1%23.3%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 6：撥備前利潤環(huán)比下降：撥備前利潤環(huán)比下降 0.2%，增速分化明顯，增速分化明顯撥備前利潤工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行12H1788951526561062091264214757410145312832835525358348271040728302196923055316

38、8976581611211A YoY24.6%24.9%21.1%35.7%24.7%40.0%60.1%46.4%45.8%42.9%63.7%38.9%36.0%42.3%38.9%40.6%30.2%12H YoY13.0%14.2%3.1%12.1%19.5%26.9%37.3%27.9%35.1%24.0%53.5%70.0%35.6%46.1%42.3%43.1%17.2%11Q1 QoQ32.9%38.5%36.6%34.4%40.9%18.3%42.4%34.8%3.4%48.4%26.3%7.2%35.3%12.8%44.6%66.5%34.5%11Q2 QoQ2.4%3.2

39、%4.2%-0.2%-4.2%13.4%27.1%13.1%15.9%6.4%5.4%30.7%5.1%23.6%4.7%-0.3%4.4%11Q3 QoQ-3.6%-2.3%-14.8%4.1%-2.0%2.2%-9.9%19.5%11.0%-1.7%23.9%-2.9%-11.2%5.5%-4.4%6.2%-2.4%11Q4 QoQ-13.9%-19.4%-10.3%-15.3%-2.0%10.6%-1.0%-11.7%19.1%-11.1%-2.7%16.0%1.3%-3.9%22.7%-7.7%-10.6%12Q1 QoQ35.0%37.3%38.2%33.9%30.3%-10.2%4

40、0.0%11.3%-10.1%37.4%22.9%18.6%50.5%26.6%8.6%42.9%31.6%12Q2 QoQ-0.7%7.9%-8.6%-9.7%-4.8%35.4%-3.6%5.2%11.8%0.2%2.0%24.4%-4.8%6.0%18.5%4.9%-0.2%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 7：營業(yè)收入環(huán)比增速：營業(yè)收入環(huán)比增速 0.9%略超預期，因利息凈收入增長抵消手續(xù)費凈入增速放緩略超預期，因利息凈收入增長抵消手續(xù)費凈入增速放緩百萬元工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波12H26548622700517962720973373642194

41、5251456441714000357119196264122130479496211A YoY24.8%22.8%18.5%30.1%21.8%37.0%50.4%38.0%36.2%34.7%64.5%37.8%29.7%34.7%12H YoY14.1%15.8%8.1%13.9%18.9%22.6%32.4%25.1%25.5%24.0%61.7%57.1%32.9%36.5%11Q1 QoQ11.4%8.6%12.3%10.7%7.0%9.5%16.5%7.8%8.8%11.2%19.6%-0.1%22.0%-3.8%11Q2 QoQ4.4%3.5%-1.2%5.6%4.8%14.4

42、%26.5%9.7%9.7%16.1%8.8%25.2%5.6%15.1%11Q3 QoQ0.1%0.4%-4.1%0.4%1.8%2.9%-1.6%9.1%4.6%-14.9%35.3%1.7%-7.1%6.4%11Q4 QoQ3.7%0.8%4.7%3.7%1.6%2.9%3.7%6.6%6.7%17.3%4.4%26.6%11.6%9.2%12Q1 QoQ6.1%8.7%14.6%8.5%11.5%0.8%13.0%0.9%7.0%9.7%8.7%2.4%23.6%6.3%12Q2 QoQ2.6%7.0%-10.8%-3.9%1.7%15.3%5.5%3.8%0.9%1.2%1.8%14

43、.3%1.9%6.5%請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。9行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)南京北京上市銀行477213307128206133.8%27.1%27.2%36.7%36.5%17.9%23.7%11.9%10.6%8.9%9.5%5.9%-2.2%3.3%-0.3%2.7%-7.5%4.6%22.8%29.4%9.2%12.7%11.2%0.9%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 8：利息凈收入同比增長：利息凈收入同比增長 19.6%，環(huán)比增速擴張，環(huán)比增速擴張 1.2 個百分點利息凈收入工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行12H20

44、4058169692124054167685583941719437871369293560643641161573460825308433838441173099110911A YoY19.4%21.1%17.6%26.9%20.7%33.1%41.3%35.3%35.9%33.7%59.8%33.4%29.6%33.6%40.9%29.7%24.7%12H YoY16.9%16.5%12.6%15.9%18.5%20.6%28.2%23.9%25.5%22.2%55.5%56.2%34.1%41.0%25.4%35.3%19.6%11Q1 QoQ4.0%3.3%0.7%3.5%1.0%4.

45、1%4.3%7.6%6.1%7.1%16.8%-7.7%12.2%3.4%12.2%2.2%3.5%11Q2 QoQ4.4%3.4%5.9%5.2%7.7%15.0%20.4%7.8%8.3%5.8%3.6%26.5%4.1%7.9%11.3%8.7%6.4%11Q3 QoQ3.9%4.4%0.7%6.0%4.1%4.9%6.3%11.0%6.1%8.4%37.8%3.8%5.0%13.5%-0.5%7.3%5.1%11Q4 QoQ3.3%5.5%6.4%6.6%0.4%0.5%5.6%5.7%11.3%3.9%4.4%22.4%3.5%7.3%14.4%8.5%5.6%12Q1 QoQ3.3

46、%0.7%-0.3%2.4%6.2%0.0%4.7%0.9%2.3%4.2%4.6%4.2%16.4%5.6%-1.1%5.1%2.6%12Q2 QoQ6.5%6.7%4.7%-4.6%5.9%13.7%-0.4%1.7%-0.3%2.5%3.1%11.2%8.0%11.3%11.5%12.3%3.8%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 9：手續(xù)費凈收入增速明顯放緩，中小行增速相對平緩：手續(xù)費凈收入增速明顯放緩，中小行增速相對平緩手 續(xù) 費 凈收入工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安12H5480449243342503892910962199910030540538779732

47、277911A YoY39.4%31.5%18.7%49.0%35.0%105.9%82.2%55.1%65.9%37.9%131.2%12H YoY1.9%3.3%-2.1%4.8%9.1%30.9%26.7%38.7%17.6%19.2%134.0%11Q1 QoQ41.9%32.7%41.4%46.7%29.9%144.7%61.0%18.4%18.2%23.1%10.6%11Q2 QoQ7.5%5.9%-11.8%9.2%2.7%19.0%68.3%10.7%23.7%8.1%46.6%11Q3 QoQ-12.1%-13.9%-3.3%-8.8%-1.7%-21.0%-22.0%12.

48、6%-11.0%-12.7%76.0%11Q4 QoQ-5.1%-13.8%-12.7%-21.3%-9.9%21.0%-14.7%14.2%10.5%1.6%-0.6%12Q1 QoQ23.1%33.5%52.9%52.7%34.1%10.3%55.4%-0.2%2.6%28.6%17.3%12Q2 QoQ-8.5%2.6%-38.1%-17.0%-18.5%28.6%-4.8%5.7%10.7%1.1%-8.1%請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。10行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行62184938434489124723533684.2%48.1%47.2%

49、53.9%67.3%38.7%64.0%29.9%73.3%41.9%39.5%7.6%17.5%93.3%38.5%55.1%99.2%39.3%34.6%-1.2%-58.3%6.1%9.3%6.2%-2.8%-18.0%443.9%1.4%-21.0%-9.3%38.9%4.9%-82.8%-55.3%-38.0%-9.8%-10.7%52.5%263.7%189.9%170.2%34.9%37.1%-0.5%-26.7%9.9%1.8%-10.8%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 10：營業(yè)費用率同比下降：營業(yè)費用率同比下降 0.05 個百分點，營業(yè)稅金增加抵消成本收入比下降營

50、 業(yè) 費 用占比工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行11Q130.93%31.63%32.84%36.99%30.30%49.36%38.69%38.19%41.65%38.77%43.23%37.39%36.42%44.65%34.92%26.50%34.14%11H31.35%31.74%34.06%38.78%33.16%49.61%40.30%37.21%40.22%38.75%44.15%35.92%36.53%42.48%36.23%29.94%34.95%11Q332.17%32.30%35.66%38.63%34.84%49.80%42.13

51、%34.69%38.31%39.51%46.51%36.56%37.45%41.97%37.10%30.39%35.60%11A35.45%35.89%38.73%41.50%36.60%48.88%43.04%36.80%36.00%42.52%48.45%38.54%39.43%43.30%37.68%33.48%38.30%12Q131.00%31.82%33.92%37.90%29.55%52.25%33.35%36.27%39.62%38.46%47.03%33.97%33.04%38.27%35.38%24.32%34.18%12H31.72%31.57%35.48%39.72%3

52、1.91%47.78%37.74%35.81%36.40%38.76%46.97%30.95%35.26%38.43%33.61%26.57%34.90%12H YoY0.37%-0.17%1.42%0.94%-1.25%-1.82%-2.56%-1.41%-3.82%0.02%2.82%-4.98%-1.27%-4.05%-2.63%-3.36%-0.05%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 11：成本收入比同比下降：成本收入比同比下降 0.67 個百分點成本收入比工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信11Q125.22%25.92%27.72%31.56%23.83%42.51%31.35

53、%31.30%11H25.52%25.86%28.81%33.25%26.44%42.59%33.01%30.32%11Q326.21%26.31%30.14%33.02%27.98%42.24%34.88%27.82%11A29.38%29.79%33.07%35.89%29.56%41.89%35.61%29.86%12Q124.36%25.16%27.79%32.01%22.34%44.85%25.87%28.96%12H25.19%24.97%29.23%33.74%24.65%40.57%30.26%28.43%12H YoY-0.33%-0.89%0.42%0.50%-1.79%-

54、2.02%-2.75%-1.89%請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。11行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行34.59%32.77%35.56%29.96%29.44%38.02%29.01%19.71%28.27%33.12%32.63%36.30%28.76%29.45%35.92%29.75%23.00%28.95%31.10%33.25%38.38%29.17%30.06%35.12%30.26%23.29%29.45%28.79%36.19%39.99%31.37%31.95%36.38%30.97%26.35%32.06%32.02%31.8

55、6%38.18%27.33%25.90%31.88%28.40%17.03%27.56%28.77%32.20%38.13%24.57%28.09%32.09%27.12%19.45%28.28%-4.35%-0.42%1.83%-4.19%-1.37%-3.84%-2.63%-3.54%-0.67%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 12：撥備計提處于較高水平，二季度信用成本同比上升：撥備計提處于較高水平，二季度信用成本同比上升 24BP 至 0.50%信用成本工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京上市銀行11Q10.50%0.33%0.35%0.96%0.5

56、3%1.09%0.67%0.54%0.28%0.56%0.23%0.20%0.34%0.30%0.60%0.22%0.84%11Q20.44%0.60%0.51%1.17%0.45%0.66%0.87%0.06%0.25%0.49%0.44%0.04%0.74%0.71%0.59%0.04%0.27%11Q31.01%0.44%0.25%1.01%0.57%0.86%0.51%0.19%0.60%0.38%0.25%0.22%0.01%0.32%0.98%0.25%0.61%11Q40.22%0.76%0.24%1.39%0.49%0.70%1.13%1.31%0.85%0.68%0.71%0

57、.65%0.55%0.96%0.81%1.99%0.58%12Q10.51%0.40%0.34%0.75%0.56%0.73%1.09%0.61%0.49%0.44%0.41%0.62%0.39%0.57%0.52%0.44%0.52%12Q20.43%0.46%0.22%0.81%0.48%0.56%0.61%0.06%0.26%0.59%0.53%1.51%0.64%0.56%1.20%1.09%0.50%12Q2 YoY-0.01%-0.14%-0.29%-0.36%0.03%-0.10%-0.26%0.00%0.02%0.10%0.09%1.47%-0.10%-0.15%0.61%1.

58、04%0.24%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 13：核心資本充足率環(huán)比普遍上升，個別行下降明顯：核心資本充足率環(huán)比普遍上升，個別行下降明顯核 心 資 本充足率工行建行中行農行交行11Q19.66%10.33%9.96%9.61%9.24%11Q29.82%10.42%10.01%9.36%9.41%11Q310.30%10.57%9.92%9.36%9.24%11Q410.07%10.87%10.07%9.50%9.27%12Q110.15%11.02%9.97%9.60%9.39%12Q210.38%11.19%10.15%9.65%9.58%12Q2 QoQ0.23%0.17%

59、0.18%0.05%0.19%請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責聲明。12行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京平均0.00%8.01%8.21%9.09%7.66%7.14%8.42%8.00%11.93%12.44%0.00%8.11%9.80%7.75%8.87%9.16%7.81%7.01%8.24%8.06%11.46%11.63%9.68%9.28%9.58%7.98%10.43%9.01%8.10%8.38%8.08%8.24%12.33%10.89%0.00%8.90%8.72%7.87%9.91%9.20%8.22%8.46%8.20%7.

60、89%12.17%11.76%9.59%9.48%8.35%7.82%9.94%9.02%8.31%8.63%8.27%8.11%11.85%10.74%11.83%9.56%8.42%8.41%10.05%8.90%8.32%8.44%8.36%8.05%11.71%10.42%10.96%9.56%0.07%0.59%0.11%-0.12%0.01%-0.19%0.09%-0.06%-0.14%-0.32%-0.87%0.00%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部表 14：資本充足率環(huán)比上升：資本充足率環(huán)比上升 11BP資本充足率工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南

61、京北京平均11Q111.77%12.45%12.38%11.40%12.05%0.00%11.00%11.05%11.68%10.91%10.13%10.71%10.73%15.22%13.26%0.00%10.30%11Q212.33%12.51%12.95%11.91%12.20%13.32%10.73%11.40%11.50%11.05%10.58%11.22%10.82%14.62%12.43%12.27%11.99%11Q312.51%12.58%12.84%11.85%11.89%13.06%10.94%12.83%11.24%11.39%11.46%10.92%10.93%15.

62、33%11.67%0.00%11.34%11Q413.17%13.68%12.97%11.94%12.44%11.68%10.86%12.27%12.70%11.53%11.51%11.04%10.57%15.35%14.96%12.06%12.42%12Q113.13%13.66%12.80%12.01%12.42%11.21%10.79%12.39%12.48%11.54%11.63%11.04%10.67%14.84%13.65%13.83%12.38%12Q213.56%13.82%13.00%12.02%12.57%11.30%11.36%13.44%12.21%11.55%11.4

63、0%11.25%11.14%14.71%13.34%13.18%12.49%12Q2 QoQ0.43%0.16%0.20%0.01%0.15%0.09%0.57%1.05%-0.27%0.01%-0.23%0.21%0.47%-0.13%-0.31%-0.65%0.11%資料來源：公司公告，中國銀河證券研究部二、凈息差因結構調整分化，降息重定價構成下行動力凈息差分化，大行普遍小幅上升（3 升 2 降），股份行普遍回落（3 升 5 降），城商行小幅上升（3 升）（表 15）。結構調整是息差管理的要點，結構調整包括：1）貸款久期的縮短，通過長期貸款到期釋請務必閱讀正文最后的中國銀河證券股份公司免責

64、聲明。13行業(yè)研究報告/銀行業(yè)放資金發(fā)放短期貸款，拉升整體貸款收益率；2）提升中小企業(yè)貸款占比，提升整體風險定價水平；3）加強同業(yè)資產負債管理，同業(yè)息差改善。此外加息周期效應不同，大型銀行重定價期限較長，基于加息周期的拉升效應尚未完全釋放。交通銀行二季度息差表現(xiàn)很好驗證了以上三者要素（16），通過小微貸款拉升整體定價水平，但存款付息率上行拉低存貸利差；生息資產結構改善、同業(yè)息差與投資息差上行抵消存貸息差下行影響。交通銀行的季度息差很好反映了今年以來銀行經(jīng)營特征：1）貸款有效需求不足，票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)、債券投資日均占比上升。同時，信貸需求不足也影響到同業(yè)業(yè)務的擴張，生息資產結構有所優(yōu)化；2）整體的存款環(huán)

65、境有所改善（表 19、表 20、表 21、表 22）結構調整改善息差的空間有限，降息后的貸款重定價構成未來息差下行的最大壓力。重定價結構、客戶結構的差異將會是息差分化的主要因素（表 17、表 18）預計三季度息差下行壓力加大，連續(xù)兩次降息后的貸款重定價是最大下行動力。表 15：凈息差分化明顯，反映了結構調整與重定價期限的差別：凈息差分化明顯，反映了結構調整與重定價期限的差別期初期末口徑工行建行中行農行交行華夏民生中信浦發(fā)招行平安興業(yè)光大寧波南京北京11Q12.48%2.61%2.03%2.72%2.39%2.48%2.85%2.73%2.45%2.81%2.70%2.11%2.48%2.26%

66、2.54%2.27%11Q22.46%2.59%2.06%2.71%2.46%2.73%3.16%2.83%2.51%2.84%2.56%2.51%2.42%2.45%2.59%2.34%11Q32.50%2.65%2.04%2.80%2.50%2.92%3.30%3.06%2.53%3.05%2.87%2.50%2.57%3.00%2.47%2.32%11Q42.53%2.73%2.14%2.96%2.42%2.81%3.44%2.90%2.69%3.07%2.51%2.85%2.59%3.22%2.74%2.32%12Q12.51%2.59%2.02%2.91%2.44%2.62%3.28%2.71%2.60%3.02%2.46%2.65%2.70%3.19%2.50%2.26%12Q22.54%2.61%2.04%2.64%2.40%2.86%3.04%2.69%2.44%2.87%2.33%2.75%2.68%3.25%2.56%2.37%QoQ BP3.72.21.6-26.6-3.623.5-23.8-2.9-16.1-14.5-13.29.4-2.36.65.710.2備